NEW YORK — Nearly seven months after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the U.S. economy looks markedly different from the prewar baseline: average gasoline near $4.50 a gallon, consumer inflation at 3.4%, and 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, according to an NBC News analysis of key indicators published in late September and still framing the midterm debate this week.
Reporters Rob Wile and Joe Murphy note that on Feb. 27 — the day before the war began — gas averaged just under $3 a gallon, the consumer price index sat at 2.4%, and mortgage rates were below 6%. Diesel has climbed from about $3.75 on Feb. 28 to an all-time high above $6.50 in recent readings (NBC cited $6.52). JPMorgan oil analysts, quoted by NBC, wrote that they “simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” saying assumptions that Washington would not allow gas, inflation, or Treasury yields to reach current levels have been overtaken by events.
Inflation’s full-point rise to 3.4% helped drive the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase since 2023, Nationwide Mutual chief economist Kathy Bostjancic told NBC, warning that persistently high inflation can lift expectations. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the war has added at least 0.5 percentage points to inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved from 3.96% to nearly 5% since the conflict began, pulling mortgage rates higher in tandem.
Not every indicator is bleak. NBC notes the Census Bureau reported median household income hit a record high in 2025 and poverty fell to a record low; unemployment remains low and equities have been supported by AI investment, though the market closed a recent Friday with a second straight losing week. Still, consumer sentiment measures from the University of Michigan sit near historic lows, and Conference Board confidence has fallen for two straight months. An NBC News poll found the share of respondents saying Trump had helped the economy dropping from 35% in March to 26% in September.
White House spokesman Kush Desai told NBC that Trump has been “clear about temporary disruptions” from the Iran conflict while remaining focused on a long-term economic agenda. Trump suggested this week that a deal could arrive after November’s midterms — a timeline that would leave voters casting ballots under current price conditions.
For Arizona drivers and homebuyers, national averages translate into higher pump prices across Valley freeways and tougher monthly payments as inventory and rates interact — the same affordability theme dominating House and Senate campaigns nationwide.
Figures and quotes from NBC News’ “The U.S. economy before and after the Iran war, in five charts” (Wile/Murphy), with BLS/CBO/Fed context as reported there. National averages; local pump prices vary.