PHOENIX — New federal rules for managing the Colorado River officially begin Thursday with the start of the water year, but Arizona households and farms will not feel the next wave of delivery cuts until Jan. 1, 2027, KJZZ reported.
Federal operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead typically run on a water year that starts Oct. 1. That means the volume of water released from Powell into Mead can change this week under the Interior Department’s controversial August plan. Deliveries out of Mead to Lower Basin users — including Phoenix-area cities and California farm districts — still track the calendar year, so Arizona’s next official cutback date remains New Year’s Day.
Arizona, California and Nevada are still negotiating a side agreement meant to spread the pain of federal cutbacks that fall heavily on Arizona. Tom Buschatzke, Arizona’s top water negotiator, told KJZZ he is “very optimistic” the three-state deal language can close soon and move to water-user boards over the coming weeks. He described remaining work as “dotting I’s and T’s,” with California finishing details among large users such as the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California and the Imperial Irrigation District.
Negotiations slowed after Nevada sued the federal government over how Interior crafted the new rules. Buschatzke said the lawsuit had to be worked through as part of the Lower Basin talks, but he still sees a path to finish the agreement alongside Nevada’s legal complaint. Nevada water leader John Entsminger has said the state remains committed to finalizing the Lower Basin deal even while the lawsuit proceeds.
Once negotiators sign, Arizona is the only Colorado River state where the Legislature can approve or block interstate water-sharing agreements. Buschatzke has said he would not sign without confidence lawmakers would back the pact, possibly in a special session. Water has become a flashpoint in the gubernatorial race between Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, and Republican legislators have pressed the Arizona Department of Water Resources for more briefings. Buschatzke still expects bipartisan approval once a deal is ready.
For now, Arizonans should treat Oct. 1 as a management milestone on the river’s upstream plumbing — not an immediate change at the tap. The binding local impact still hinges on a three-state compact, board votes, and legislative sign-off before the January delivery year begins.
Water policy expert John Berggren of Western Resource Advocates told KJZZ the familiar Colorado River pattern is repeating: negotiators reach a high-level deal, then must “shop it around” to cities and irrigation districts before signatures stick. California’s homework includes lining up conservation from Metropolitan Water District customers and the Imperial Irrigation District, the single largest Colorado River water user. Arizona and Nevada say their internal plans are further along.
For Phoenix and Tucson ratepayers, the practical takeaway is timeline discipline. Mead inflows may shift under the new water-year operations starting Thursday, but CAP deliveries tied to the calendar year leave a three-month runway to finish the Lower Basin pact, clear boards, and — uniquely in Arizona — survive a legislative vote. If that sequence slips past New Year’s, federal cutbacks could land without the burden-sharing Arizona has been counting on.