PHOENIX — Long-term water supplies have risen to the top concern of Arizona voters for the first time, according to a September Center for the Future of Arizona survey, and the issue now dominates gubernatorial ads, House races, and lawn signs across the Valley, Reuters reported Thursday.
The shift followed a 27% federal cut this year to Arizona’s Colorado River supply. Under interstate rules, Arizona historically takes shortages before California; water managers warn deeper reductions after 2028 could further squeeze the Central Arizona Project canal that serves Phoenix and Tucson. About 71% of Arizonans in the CFA survey said they do not believe the state’s water systems can reliably support future growth and extreme heat.
Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat seeking reelection Nov. 3, is airing spots arguing “Arizona’s water is for Arizonans” and that she fought for the state’s fair share of the river. Turning Point USA responded with Phoenix street placards accusing Hobbs of losing “billions of gallons.” Hobbs’s campaign says she blocked outsiders from siphoning groundwater, defended Colorado River rights, and is converting some agricultural rights toward lower-use urban development.
Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs accuses Hobbs of stoking a “panic narrative” that has cost jobs and investment. He promotes a roughly $19 billion infrastructure plan that includes finishing a Yuma desalination plant. Biggs told Reuters Arizona is “not out of water” and that the challenge is management, not absolute scarcity. ASU’s Kyl Center for Water Policy director Sarah Porter said the state must invest in new supplies and that consumers should expect rate hikes and restrictions.
Water is also central in competitive U.S. House races in northeast metro Phoenix. Republican Jay Feely argues Hobbs failed to negotiate a fair Lower Basin deal; Democrat Amish Shah stresses conservation, possible desalination partnerships, and opposition to data centers in the arid suburbs. Sybil Francis of the Center for the Future of Arizona called candidate focus on water “very new” compared with past gubernatorial cycles.
With early voting approaching and Colorado River talks still unfinished, Arizona’s midterms have turned a once-technical resource fight into a ballot-box test of who voters trust to keep growth, farms, and household taps afloat.
Arizona’s population has nearly tripled since 1980 to about 7.6 million, underwritten for decades by Colorado River abundance and underground banking of surplus CAP water. The 2026 federal cut punctured that assumption. Matt Beidler, a Phoenix IT worker and Democrat, told Reuters he is even eyeing a move to Chicago because the desert climate outlook “is not promising.” Scottsdale healthcare worker Elizabeth Ramirez, a Biggs supporter, said the state is “slowly losing our water from the Colorado River” and wants desalination and infrastructure answers.
Campaign strategists note water now outranks affordability, immigration and even the Iran war in the CFA survey — a remarkable reordering for a Sun Belt growth state. Whether Hobbs’s “water for Arizonans” framing or Biggs’s anti-panic infrastructure pitch wins will shape not only the governorship but how Arizona bargains when Colorado River talks resume on the next multiyear operating rules.