RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s presidential race appears headed for a runoff after Sunday’s first round left neither front-runner with a majority, according to partial official results and a projection by polling firm Datafolha.
With 89.29% of electronic voting machines tallied Sunday evening, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party had 48.13% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party had 43.88%, Brazilian outlet Extra reported, citing the national electoral court’s count. Writer Augusto Cury was a distant third with 2.93%, followed by Renan Santos with 2.30%. Datafolha projected that the race would go to a second round, Folha de S.Paulo reported.
Under Brazil’s constitution, a candidate must win more than half of valid votes to avoid a runoff. If no one does, the top two meet again three weeks later — this year on Oct. 25 — according to The Guardian. The winner takes office Jan. 5, 2027.
A rematch by proxy
The contest is effectively a sequel to the bitter 2022 race. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a lawyer and former senator from Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing to Lula four years ago. The elder Bolsonaro endorsed his son’s campaign, The Guardian reported.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. He led Brazil from 2003 to 2011, a period known for commodity-driven growth and poverty reduction, and returned to power in 2023. Because of term limits, a win would make this his final term.
The runoff could be close. A Datafolha poll released Oct. 1 showed Lula ahead 48% to 45% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Reuters reported, while Sunday’s first-round count put Bolsonaro in front. Votes for the eliminated candidates are now up for grabs.
Results down the ballot
Brazilians also voted for governors, senators and federal and state legislators. São Paulo Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas won re-election outright with about 63% of the vote, and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro won a Senate seat representing the Federal District, Extra reported.
Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, is a major U.S. trading partner and a key player in global agriculture and climate talks, making the outcome closely watched in Washington and across the Americas. Official totals will continue to update overnight as the remaining machines are counted.
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