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Monday, November 2, 2026 · Phoenix, AZ

California’s billionaire tax: $100 billion windfall or $39 billion loss?

The California State Capitol

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California voters are deciding Proposition 40, which would create the nation’s first wealth tax aimed at billionaires, and economists are split on whether it would help or hurt the state, according to NPR’s Planet Money.

The measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on billionaires’ net worth, with some assets exempted.

Economist Gabriel Zucman co-authored an analysis estimating the tax could raise about $100 billion.

Stanford economist Joshua Rauh, writing with Benjamin Jaros, reached the opposite conclusion. ‘We calculate that Proposition 40 would cost the state of California $39 billion,’ Rauh told NPR, arguing billionaires would leave the state.

Opponents have poured $333 million into a group fighting the measure, NPR reported, citing The New York Times.

NPR noted that the result could preview a national fight over taxing the superrich.

Sources: NPR. Thee Arizona Times uses AI-assisted reporting reviewed against the sources listed.

Photo: Photograph: Radomianin / Public domain via Wikimedia Commons.

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