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Friday, October 23, 2026 · Phoenix, AZ

Gas Likely to Stay Above $4 a Gallon Through Election Day, Analysts Say

A gas station price sign

Drivers shouldn’t expect much relief at the pump before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, energy analysts told ABC News.

The national average for a gallon of regular stands at $4.27, according to AAA, up nearly $1.30, or about 43%, since the Iran war began in February.

Analysts blame fighting in the Middle East, which has damaged oil infrastructure and forced shippers into costlier routes, along with the Russia-Ukraine war, which has cut Russian fuel exports. Neither conflict shows signs of ending soon, they said.

Even if oil prices dropped after a peace deal, prices at the pump typically fall more slowly than they rise, because stations are still selling fuel bought when crude was more expensive.

Affordability is one of voters’ top concerns heading into Election Day.

Sources: ABC News. Thee Arizona Times uses AI-assisted reporting reviewed against the sources listed.

Photo: Marek Ślusarczyk (Tupungato) Photo portfolio / CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

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